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Analysis

Analysis

Looking at the map

South Sudan Composition:

  • Most of the country consists of Populated Rangelands (fewer than 10 persons/km2, pastured lands, net primary production is low)

    • Upper Nile

    • Jonglei

    • Parts of Unity

    • Parts of Central Equatoria

    • Parts of Western Equatoria

    • Parts of Northern Bahr El Ghazal

    • Half of Western Bahr El Ghazal

  • Residential Rangelands (population density is never below 10 persons/km and a substantial portion of its area is used for pasture)

    • Warrap

    • Lakes

    • Parts of Eastern Equatoria

    • Parts of Central Equatoria

  • Residential Rainfed Croplands (a mixture of cropland, forest, human settlements, pasture, and limited urban area, more densely populated anthromes. There is sufficient water to support all aspects of life without hardly any irrigation.)

    • Eastern Equatoria

    • Upper Nile

  • Remote rangelands, essentially wild with little sign of human activity

    • Western Bahr el Ghazal

  • Woodlands

    • Unity

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Ethnicities

As you move Eastward and Northward there are more ethnicities living in one state. Population density also increases. Some areas, such as Lakes, consist of different tribes of the same ethnic groups. Other areas, such as Jonglei, include a huge ethnic diversity, which explains heightened tensions in the area.

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Disarmament

More disarmament activities

  • Unity

  • Lakes

  • Eastern Equatoria

  • Jonglei

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Less disarmament activities

  • Upper Nile

  • Warrap

  • Northern Bahr el Ghazal

  • Western Bahr El Ghazal

  • Western Equatoria

  • Central Equatoria

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Why Disarmament Failed

  • DDR policy was very vague, success depended on the policy that each state governor decided to implemented

  • Decentralised effort - no clear pattern of implementation

  • Institutions were weak

    • SSDDRC created with little human or financial capital in the South

    • Capacity was weak

    • International support was slow to arrive

    • SSDDRC had a building and trained staff by 2007 but State DDR commissions were barely functional

  • Bad timing (April is dry season, people get more aggressive)

  • Each state's individual security concerns were ignored

  • No efforts of creating safer communities, too much distrust of neighbours

  • No road infrastructure

  • Requires a coordinated effort that is not possible with the multitude of languages spoken in South Sudan as well as the lack of a proper chain of command

  • SPLA has poor training and is not always disciplined

  • Insufficient food supplies

  • Neighbouring tribes of disarmed groups took advantage of the situation and attacked disarmed groups, and then made money by selling them weapons. This also led to a rearming of the population.

  • Weapons have now developed a cultural significance and have long been a part of civilian culture and are now part of coming-of-age rituals

  • Community’s weapons may be a deterrent to attacks by a neighbouring community, and removing them may invite violence on that community

  • Collecting weapons can disarm individuals of their means of self-defense

  • Uneven DDR can disrupt the existing balance of power between groups, potentially creating more serious human security threats than existed before disarmament

  • SPLM/A gained peace through negotiation but did not have a clear monopoly on the use of power

The Violence Continues

  • Disarmament took place in the most violent regions in the country

  • The states that had more reported disarmament activities continue to be the states most actively involved in the conflict that began in 2013

  • The states more actively involved in the conflict are the ones where there is more food insecurity, higher temperatures, more ethnic groups living together, less precipitation, more grazing land

  • The conflict began in the Center/East of the country and has for the most part remained centered there

    • Exception: Wau in Western Bahr El Ghazal , where violence broke out in 2016

  • All disarmament efforts will be completely undermined by the current civil war

  • Further DDR plans must consider ethnicity and geography on top of security concerns

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